Chicago Real Estate Market Outlook 2026: What Q4 2025 Data Reveals About Chicago’s Most Influential Neighborhoods

From Strategic Forecast to Measurable Reality

In my recent article, I outlined why 2026 represents a structural turning point for Chicago real estate — driven by improving affordability, stabilizing mortgage rates, and a shift away from speculative market behavior.

Now, with the full Compass Q4 2025 Chicagoland Market Report available, we can see how those broader forces are translating into measurable, neighborhood-level performance.

What this data confirms is important: Chicago did not simply avoid the volatility seen in many national housing markets. Instead, it entered 2026 from a position of stability, supported by consistent demand, disciplined price growth, and improving transaction conditions.

Just as importantly, performance is increasingly driven by micro-market dynamics. Neighborhood-specific trends — not broad national narratives — are now defining opportunity.

Key Takeaways from Compass Q4 2025 Data

• Lincoln Park and Near North Side led price growth among core luxury neighborhoods.

• Lakeview demonstrated consistent, balanced demand across both detached and attached housing.

• Near West Side reflects transitional pricing conditions, creating selective opportunity.

• The Loop continues gradual stabilization in attached housing.

• 2026 conditions increasingly favor neighborhood-specific strategy over broad market timing.

Chicago’s 2026 Housing Market Is Entering a More Predictable, Strategic Phase

The broader 2026 Housing Market Outlook reflects a transition toward balance across key housing indicators:

• Inventory is expected to expand modestly, improving buyer choice

• Mortgage rates are projected to stabilize in the mid-6% range

• Home prices are forecast to rise gradually, rather than spike

• Transaction volume is expected to increase as buyer confidence strengthens

Chicago is particularly well positioned in this environment. Because pricing remained structurally aligned with local economic fundamentals throughout the last cycle, the market now benefits from stability rather than correction.

This creates a healthier environment overall — one where informed strategy consistently outperforms reactive timing.

Lincoln Park: Sustained Strength Reflects Long-Term Buyer Confidence

Lincoln Park continues to demonstrate why it remains one of Chicago’s most reliable residential markets.

Over the trailing 12 months ending Q4 2025, single-family homes showed significant performance gains:

• Median sale price increased 19.4%, reaching $2,208,888

• Closed sales increased 23.1%

• Average market time declined 26.8%

This combination of rising prices and faster transaction velocity reflects sustained demand among financially secure buyers focused on long-term ownership.

Attached homes also demonstrated strong performance:

• Median sale price increased 12.5%

• Average sale price rose 11.2%

• Market time declined 15%

Lincoln Park’s stability reinforces its role as one of Chicago’s primary anchors for long-term residential investment and lifestyle-driven demand.

Near North Side: Accelerating Price Growth Signals Renewed Urban Confidence

Near North Side experienced some of the most significant price appreciation among Chicago’s core neighborhoods.

Single-family homes saw:

• Median sale price increase 44.2%, reaching $2,325,000

• Average sale price increase 26.8%

• Closed sales increase 22.9%

This reflects renewed buyer confidence in centrally located luxury housing, driven by proximity to employment centers, lakefront access, and established urban infrastructure.

Attached homes also demonstrated strengthening conditions:

• Median price increased 5.9%

• Closed sales rose 5.5%

• Average market time declined 14.3%

These trends confirm Near North Side’s continued role as one of Chicago’s most resilient and strategically important housing markets.

Lakeview: Consistent Performance Demonstrates Broad Buyer Demand

Lakeview continues to reflect one of the most balanced supply-and-demand environments in Chicago.

Single-family homes experienced:

• Median sale price increase 16.7%, reaching $1,850,000

• Average sale price increase 17.8%

• Closed sales increase 8.1%

Attached homes also demonstrated meaningful strengthening:

• Median price increased 15.3%

• Average sale price increased 12.6%

• Market time declined 13.5%

Lakeview’s consistent performance reflects broad buyer appeal, combining accessibility, neighborhood stability, and proximity to downtown and lakefront amenities.

Near West Side: Transitional Conditions Highlight Strategic Opportunity

Near West Side reflects a more transitional phase, underscoring the importance of market-specific strategy.

While detached homes saw price declines over the trailing 12 months:

• Median sale price declined 16.0%

• Average sale price declined 27.2%

The attached housing segment remained comparatively stable:

• Median price increased 2.7%

• Closed sales remained steady

• Market time remained stable

Markets undergoing transitional adjustment often present strategic entry opportunities for buyers focused on long-term value rather than short-term price movement.

As development, infrastructure, and buyer migration patterns continue evolving, Near West Side remains an important neighborhood to watch closely.

The Loop: Transaction Stability Signals Continued Urban Recovery

Downtown Chicago continues to stabilize following pandemic-era disruptions to urban housing demand.

Attached homes in the Loop demonstrated gradual strengthening:

• Closed sales increased 4.1%

• Median price increased 1.5%

• Average sale price increased 4.5%

While recovery in downtown markets often progresses more gradually, improving transaction stability signals strengthening buyer confidence in long-term urban ownership.

The Loop remains a strategically important housing market as office activity, infrastructure, and urban demand continue normalizing.

Inventory Expansion in 2026 Will Create New Strategic Windows

National housing supply is projected to expand modestly in 2026, and Chicago is already beginning to reflect this shift.

This creates meaningful implications:

For buyers, increased inventory provides more options and improved negotiating conditions.

For sellers, success increasingly depends on preparation, positioning, and accurate pricing — rather than relying on constrained supply alone.

Well-prepared listings continue to perform strongly, while strategically mispriced listings face longer absorption timelines. This is a healthier, more balanced housing environment overall.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026

The Q4 2025 data confirms that Chicago is not moving as a single market — it is moving neighborhood by neighborhood.

For buyers, this means opportunity exists — but it is selective. Transitional areas like Near West Side require a different strategy than established markets like Lincoln Park or Near North Side.

For sellers, pricing precision matters more than ever. As inventory gradually expands, homes that are positioned accurately from day one continue to outperform.

The most successful outcomes in today’s environment are not driven by urgency — they are driven by preparation, clarity, and neighborhood-specific strategy.

If you would like a deeper review of the full Q4 2025 Chicagoland Market Report — including broader suburban data, inventory trends, and year-over-year comparisons — you can access the complete report here:

View the Full Q4 2025 Chicagoland Market Report →

FAQ:

Is 2026 a good time to buy a home in Chicago?

Based on Q4 2025 data from the Compass Chicagoland Market Report, Chicago is entering a more balanced housing phase. Inventory is expanding gradually, mortgage rates are stabilizing, and price growth remains moderate. For buyers focused on long-term ownership, 2026 presents selective opportunities depending on neighborhood conditions.

What is the Chicago real estate market forecast for 2026?

The 2026 Chicago real estate market forecast reflects stabilization rather than correction. Home prices are projected to rise gradually, transaction volume is expected to increase, and performance will vary significantly by neighborhood rather than moving as a single market.

Which Chicago neighborhoods are appreciating the most in 2026?

Over the trailing 12 months ending Q4 2025, Lincoln Park and Near North Side led price growth among core luxury neighborhoods. Lakeview demonstrated consistent demand, while Near West Side showed transitional pricing patterns creating selective entry opportunities.

Should I sell my home in Chicago in 2026?

With inventory gradually expanding, sellers in 2026 must prioritize strategic pricing and strong market positioning. Well-prepared listings continue to perform strongly, particularly in high-demand neighborhoods such as Lincoln Park and Near North Side.

If you are considering buying or selling in Chicago in 2026, I would be happy to provide a neighborhood-specific analysis tailored to your goals and timeline.

Data Source: All statistics referenced above are based on data from the Compass Q4 2025 Chicagoland Market Report (trailing 12-month data ending December 2025).